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Modelling the Global Mpox Outbreak
The current global outbreaks of mpox is a unique infectious disease in the way it seems to be transmitting: it has been observed to be highly concentrated in communities of men who have sex with men (MSM) through pair formation. This framework of mostly close, prolonged contact spreading a disease creates the need for a new model framework that incorporates pair formation structure with recovery. While seemingly a straight-forward model, we show how new dynamics arise from the combination of pair formation and recovery that are not present in a standard model with recovery, or a pair-formation model without recovery. We see that the combination of these two properties allows for waves of infection that are not seen in a standard SIR model. We also observe how risk-stratification with pair-formation can lead to novel scenarios of vaccine invervention.