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Risk Tolerance, Norms, and Epidemic Waves
We know that risk tolerance varies in populations, including non-pharmaceutical responses such as mask-wearing and other prophylactic behaviors. However, the decision to, e.g., wear a mask is not a mere combination of risk tolerance and perceived prevalence of a disease; mask wearing is also informed by the aggregate behaviors of others. In-group norms can influence how people interpret the behavior in relation to disease prevalence. There are few, if any, models that explore the dynamics of a system in which behavior contributes to and is a function of both perceived disease prevalence and a social domain. Consequently, we do not yet understand how feedback loops between risk heterogeneity and in-group behaviour are contributing factors to patterns in disease dynamics. In this talk I present simulation results from models that illustrate the complicated ways that risk heterogeneity and norms impact disease dynamics, particularly the emergence of epidemic waves.