An application of financial risk measures to marine mammal mitigation for the Canadian Armed Forces

Andrew Day

Many NATO countries use mathematical modelling and decision aids for mitigating the risk of harm to marine mammals due to active sonar tests. The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) put operational marine mammal mitigation (M3) measures in place during active sonar tests, trials, and training, but they are imperfect. This work supports the reorganization of the CAF’s M3 efforts. A model for the distribution of harm to marine mammals has been developed and risk measures from financial mathematics have been used to quantify worst-case scenarios. The distribution model accounts for the spatial-temporal uncertainty in marine mammal locations and abundance, transmission loss of the sound sources, and species-specific criteria for harm. Under reasonable assumptions, a closed-form solution is found for the distribution. These risk assessments would be used by planners to choose times, locations, and allowed sonar configurations when conducting force readiness activities that would reduce the risk of harm to marine mammals in the area. Two applicable case studies will be presented which includes an application of Koch’s spatially normalized risk measures. Additionally, the leveraging of near real-time marine mammal detections for updating risk assessments and backtesting the financial risk measures will be discussed.

 Overview  Program